Predicting Real Estate Prices?

chutes and ladders game box


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chutes and ladders game box


Predicting real estate prices is a lot like predicting the winner of “Chutes and Ladders”.

Mortgage rates are down.  The housing supply is down.  Prices are up.  Will the craziness ever end?  Buy now or buy later?

The National Association of Realtors provides tons of statistical information on the country’s housing market.

But like Chutes and Ladders, nobody knows who wins until the final spin.  National data is helpful but real estate is local.  Single-family home sales in Greater Cincinnati through the end of October reflect slightly lower list and sale prices in October.

Chart of single family home sales through October 2021

Per the Multiple Listing of Greater Cincinnati, the Sale Price to List Price ratio fell as September – the latest date for their data:

List Price to sales price ratio chart

Source: Multiple Listing Service of Greater Cincinnati


The national picture shows prices dropping slightly since the beginning of the year:


Finally Keeping Current Matters charts home sales for the past 3 years.  2019 was pretty normal but you can see 2020 was crazy.  2021 started off with off-the-records speed and has settled into a more balanced pace.

KCM Infographic comparing home sales

Source: Keeping Current Matters

From a buyer's perspective, the current Cincinnati real estate market is depressing. Too many chutes and not enough ladders.   Not enough homes to buy and prices continue to creep up.  However, waiting for spring is probably the wrong move. Every uptick in mortgage interest rates impacts buying power.  And while rates remain very low- they are creeping up slowly. 

Need help navigating the real estate game?